commodity future Price advisory

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Gold could slip to $1308, Silver buying opportunity at $20.87

Investors were looking ahead to testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday for insight as to whether or not the U.S. central bank will maintain the current pace of reductions to its stimulus program.

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): 

Mixed trend is seen in US gold futures in Asian trading hours after witnessing a fall on Wednesday night as US Fed Reserve is likely to continue with its tapering measures. US Gold futures for April delivery rose to $1331.3 before falling to $1329 an ounce.

According to TFF Market Analysis based on XAU/USD:"The correction we have been anticipating and hoping for over the past few sessions is underway. Silver had been underperforming recently and GDX and its junior have both been sluggish after strong January and February rebounds. As long as the momentum continues tomorrow Silver is fast approaching our next recommended buy order at $20.87. The action today for GDX and GDXJ suggests this should happen."

Gold has failed to rise to $1355 resistance levels and RSI has fallen from 71 levels to 66 levels on daily charts signifying selling at higher levels. MACD remains in positive territory raising hopes of prices moving up to $360 levels although a break of support level downwards can push prices to below $1300, 

Oil inventories were up this week but at a much lower level than forecast. A good day for crude as Gold and Silver start an inevitable downward correction. This could well continue over the coming few sessions but we believe the best money is to be made by accumulating Silver during any pullback and we therefore do not see any useful opportunities to put any money to work in crude at this time in either direction.

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COMMODITY MARKET TRENDS 28 FEB. 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Copper advanced for the first time this week, paring a monthly drop, on concern that mine supplies will decline from Indonesia and stockpiles continued shrinking.
CS JEERA (MARCH) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:11300
SUP2:11275
RESIST1:11900
RESIST2:12170
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CAPITALSTAR0S.COM +919200099927

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate crude fell for a second day, trimming a monthly gain. Brent swung between gains and losses in London.
CS TURMERIC (APRIL) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:6770
SUP2:6610
RESIST1:7140
RESIST2:7370
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CAPITALSTARS.COM +919200099927

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold headed for the first back-to-back monthly gain since August as concern that the U.S. recovery may be losing momentum and turmoil in emerging markets boosted haven demand. Assets in bullion-backed exchange-traded products were set for the first monthly increase in 14 months.
CS SOYABEAN (MARCH) OVERVIEW:
TREND BULLISH
SUP1:4085
SUP2:4020
RESIST1:4220
RESIST2:4276
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CAPITALSTARS.COM +919200099927

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: ANZ Business Confidence, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, FOMC Member Fisher Speaks, GDP m/m, Prelim GDP q/q, Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, Chicago PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Pending Home Sales m/m, FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks, FOMC Member Stein Speaks, BOE Gov Carney Speaks.
CS CHANA (APRIL) OVERVIEW:
TREND BULLISH
SUP1:2960
SUP2:2910   
RESIST1:3200
RESIST2:3230
TRADING STRATEGY:BUY ON DIPS   
CAPITALSTARS.COM +919977499927

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INDIAN EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK-28 Feb 2014

INDIAN BENCHMARK have started the trading session on a higher note with Sensex and Nifty gaining by nearly 0.5% each. The government will unveil data on gross domestic product (GDP) for Q3 December 2013 after trading hours today.

FURTHER, Tech Mahindra said it has signed an agreement to acquire the IT and consultancy services business of chemical giant BASF in a bid to strengthen its presence in Western Europe. Reliance Industries is fearing that it may be compelled to shut down production from KG-D6 block in the absence of an agreement on the price of gas.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs.511cr in the cash segment on Wednesday while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net sellers of Rs. 251cr, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.

 

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BSE-NSE-closed-for-Mahashivratri

BSE and NSE will be closed on 27th February on account of Mahashivratri. Indices got off to a positive start and gained ground led by the gradual buying momentum seen in the auto, FMCG, capital goods and the pharma stocks.

Finally, BSE Sensex closed at 20,987 up 134 points, while NSE Nifty closed at 6,239 up 39 points over the previous close.

Coming back to domestic action, the upswing was so smooth that only the metals and the realty index on the BSE ended in the negative terrain.

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commodity and agri market trends

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COMMODITY MARKET TRENDS 26 FEB. 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Copper traded near a three-week low after a report showed flagging U.S. consumer confidence and amid concern that China’s growth is slowing, damping demand prospects from the world’s two biggest users.
CS CRUDE (FEB.) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:6270
SUP2:6150
RESIST1:6355
RESIST2:6470
TRADING STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CAPITALSTARS.COM +919200099927

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate traded near the lowest price in more than a week. An industry report showed stockpiles declined at the delivery point for U.S. crude contracts. Brent was little changed.
CS GOLD (APRIL) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:29750
SUP2:29630
RESIST1:30300
RESIST2:30520
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CAPITALSTARS.COM +919200099927

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold traded near a 17-week high as investors weighed U.S. economic data that missed estimates against weaker physical demand at higher prices.
CS SILVER (MARCH) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:46700
SUP2:45850    
RESIST1:49240
RESIST2:50400
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CAPITALSTARS.COM +919200099927

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Second Estimate GDP q/q, New Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories.
CS COPPER (FEB.) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:442
SUP2:440
RESIST1:450
RESIST2:453
TRADING STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CAPITALSTARS.COM +919200099927

 

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Silver may post moderate gains in H1, demand strong

Silver fabrication demand is expected to witness moderate recovery in 2014 due to slowdown in economic slowdown in China. Silver fabrication demand has been weak in 2011 and 2012 due to higher prices after attaining a..

 

MUMBAI (Commodity Online): 

Silver may witness moderate gains in first half of 2014 as US Fed tapering and slowdown in China will impact market sentiments in the precious industrial metal, according to Nirmal Bang Commodities & FX Year Book 2014.

Silver prices have fallen sharply from $32/ounce to $18.50/ounce, a correction of more than 40% in a year. Silver has higher beta than gold, thus in line with correction in gold, silver too crashed in 2013. The major fundamental reasons for correction in silver were massive surplus, diminishing demand prospects and correction in gold prices. Silver market is in a major surplus since the start of 2012 and it continues to surge. Surplus in silver has been growing at a rapid pace since the start of 2012. The total cash cost of silver mines is expected to be around $9/ounce. But since only 23% total silver production comes from direct silver mine, it’s unimportant.

Silver fabrication demand is expected to witness moderate recovery in 2014 due to slowdown in economic slowdown in China. Silver fabrication demand has been weak in 2011 and 2012 due to higher prices after attaining a peak in 2010. Positive manufacturing data from across the globe may lead to increased fabrication demand.

Curbs on India gold imports helped raise demand for silver in jewellery indsutry. India's imports rose to 4073 tons from January to August 2013 as against total imports of 1921 tons in 2012. Jewellery fabrication demand is expected to rise 6% in 2014.

 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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COMMODITY MARKET TRENDS 25 FEBRUARY 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Copper fell the most in three weeks in New York after Shanghai Securities News reported that some banks in China are curbing real-estate loans, signaling slower demand growth from the world’s largest metal-consuming country.
CS CRUDE (FEB.) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:6325
SUP2:6280
RESIST1:6477
RESIST2:6582
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CAPITALSTARS.COM +919200099927

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate swung between gains and losses near $103 a barrel amid speculation crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell as cold weather boosted fuel demand in the world’s biggest oil consumer.
CS GOLD (APRIL) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:29750
SUP2:29630
RESIST1:30300
RESIST2:30520
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CAPITALSTARS.COM +919200099927
 
PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold traded near a 16-week high even as some investors deemed the rally excessive on expectations the Federal Reserve will keep its plan to reduce U.S. stimulus.
CS SILVER (MARCH) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:46700
SUP2:45850   
RESIST1:49240
RESIST2:50400
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CAPITALSTARS.COM +919200099927

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, HPI m/m, CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Manufacturing Index, FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks.
CS COPPER (FEB.) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:442
SUP2:440
RESIST1:450
RESIST2:453
TRADING STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CAPITALSTARS.COM +919200099927

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Gold march may continue upto $1555 levels near term

At India's Multi Commodity Exchange, gold futures for April delivery has been trading range bound in 30,000 levels ocassionally falling to 29800 levels last week.

 

LONDON/MUMBAI (Commodity Online): 

US gold futures rallied to a high of$1339 an ounce before falling bak to $1334 an ounce on profit booking and investor expectations that Federal Reserve will go ahead with its plans to reduce stimulus measures.

At India's Multi Commodity Exchange, gold futures for April delivery has been trading range bound in 30,000 levels ocassionally falling to 29800 levels last week.

China has overtaken India as the largest gold consumer in 2013, however, gold demand may weaken as higher prices have impacted market senitments this week analysts said. Volumes for the benchmark contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange declined for a second day and the metal for immediate delivery has traded at a discount to London prices since February 20, Bloomberg reported.

In Asian trade on Tuesday, Gold is seen volative over worries that Ukraine could plunge into a sovereign debt default and that the likelihood of stimmulus measures being tapered in USA. 

"On daily charts, an RSI 71.69 suggests rally could be overdone but a break of 1330 resistance provides momentum for a further push to 1355 levels in the near term. MACD is in positive territory providing further support to gold,"

Meanwhile, silver for May delivery fell 0.15% at US$21.000 a troy ounce, while copper futures for May delivery were down 0.05% at US$3.230 a pound.

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Base metals vulnerable to short-covering rallies,investor interest not strong in Silver

Buying Nickel on dips is advised although analysts are surporsed on lack of movement in prices which could be due to market complacency with regard to the Indonesian ore export ba

LONDON (Commodity Online): 

Short positions have increased sharply in Copper, nickel and Zinc which makes it vulnerable to short covering rallies should there be upside data surprises, according to a weekly report from Barclays.

"Time spreads across the metals have continued to tighten alongside the build in short positions. The LME copper cash to three-month spread is trading at a $43/tn backwardation with two sizeable copper short positions in the March contract. It will be interesting to see whether these positions are physically delivered against," Barclays noted.

Buying Nickel on dips is advised although analysts are surporsed on lack of movement in prices which could be due to market complacency with regard to the Indonesian ore export ban. "Now that the ban is in place and raw material is no loger leaving Indonesian shores, its effect is slowly beginning to to be felt. Physical market indicators are starting to show a moderate increase in NPI and Chinese port ore stock prices, while in copper the lack of concentrate exports is contributing to the decline in spot treatmennt and refining charges. After hitting a high of $130/ton and 13 pounds/lb, recent bids for clean concentrate have been as low as $80/ton and 8 pounds/lb.

Silver rally

The silver was accompanied by a build up physically backed exchange traded funds, short covering activity and firmer volume traded in Shanghai Gold Exchange. ETP holdings recorded their largest daily inflow in a month in the second week of February and have risen by 125 last week, Barclays report said.

"Although industrial demand has shown signs of improving, investor sentiment has yet to move markedly in silver’s favour. In our view, silver’s catch-up with gold looks likely to be short-lived without retail investment support."

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Zinc: Bullish fundamentals to start impacting markets in 2014

The other part to the supply picture is China, where growth is slowing sharply. After years of double-digit percentage growth, mine production grew only 4% in 2013. That’s even slower than the official data sugg..

LONDON (Commodity Online): 

The long anticpated supply tightening in zinc is emerging as recent zinc mine corporate data suggests, according to Barclays Plc.

Barclays which tracks close to 20% of global supplies reported that major zinc producers have reported 4% lower production on a year on year basis with ouput contracting at half the mines.

"During 2013, zinc performed fairly better than its peers from the base metals complex, fetching a marginal negative return of 0.57%. In the year 2011, zinc prices plummeted by 24%, the most among other base metals on the back of supply surplus and high legacy inventory," according to Nirmal Bang Commodity Year Book 2014.

At India's Multi Commodity Exchange, Zinc for February delivery has fallen from a high of Rs 130.35 last week to Rs 126.40 on Monday trading.

Mine supply data

-GlencoreXstrata's Q4 13 results show production dropped 9% y-o-y t due to shuttering of two big mins Perseverance and Brunswick.
-Blackthorn Resources has suspended open pit opertions because of weak metal prices and unaccpetable financial results.
-Data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZG) this week further illustrated the softer ex-China production performance: ex-China mine production did not grow at all in 2013.

The other part to the supply picture is China, where growth is slowing sharply. After years of double-digit percentage growth, mine production grew only 4% in 2013. That’s even slower than the official data suggest; NBS data show Chinese production up 9% y/y. In the past, Chinese production tended to surprise to the upside, and that certainly remains a risk

.

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INDIAN COMMODITY MARKET OUTLOOK-24 FEB 2014

INDIAN BENCHMARK have negative start and may weaken further as the day progress given the negative vibes from the global equity markets. Investor attention on the F&O expiry which happens on Wednesday and on macro economic data including the fiscal deficit data.

FURTHER, United Bank of India, stricken by bad debt, may be bracing for worse as the state-owned lender is looking into the possibility of Rs8bn having been disbursed at one of its branches in New Delhi without making sure of collateral. NTPC will set up a 1,320 MW power project in Bihar entailing an investment of Rs92bn. In this regard, a Memorandum of Understanding was inked between NTPC, Bihar State Power Generation Company Ltd and Lakhisarai Bijlee Company Private Ltd.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs.603cr in the cash segment on Friday while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net sellers of Rs. 381cr, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.

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NCDEX MoU with India Pulses and Grains Association for market efficiency initiatives

 

The MOU was signed during the Pulses Conference 2014 being held in Goa, which was attended by the trade fraternity including the members of the IPGA.

MUMBAI (Commodity Online):

NCDEX – the leading commodities futures exchange in agri commodities and ferrous metals in India, has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with India Pulses and Grains Association (IPGA) to work in collaboration for increasing effectiveness of trade tools including lifting of trading restrictions through continuous dialogue with regulator and policymakers. The MOU was signed during the Pulses Conference 2014 being held in Goa, which was attended by the trade fraternity including the members of the IPGA.

The key initiatives to be undertaken would be:-

-Facilitating and recommending measures to increase trade efficiencies and price discovery in pulses and grains, with the vision to put India on the world map of pulses and grains.

-Joint training workshops on hedging to be conducted for members, who will be kept updated on developments in the futures market by the Exchange.

-Research studies including trend analysis, crop surveys and field studies aimed at understanding and recommending solutions to overcome key challenges faced by the industry

-Efforts made to educate stakeholders about the benefits of the transparent, online spot platform of the Exchange (NSPOT)

Speaking on the development, Mr. Samir Shah, MD & CEO, NCDEX said “Over the last ten years, NCDEX has immensely contributed to the development of primary and derivatives markets in this country. With regards to this, once again we take an initiative to promote the pulses production and trade in India by joining hands with IPGA, an apex body to closely work and find out improved and industry friendly solutions. India being the largest producer as well as importer and consumer of pulses is yet to achieve self sufficiency in it. Hence this co-ordinated effort will help us achieve success in developing a market for pulses and grains”.

Mr. Praveen Dongre, Chairman, India Pulses and Grains Association said “The Memorandum of Understanding that IPGA and NCDEX have signed is the beginning of a series of promotional initiatives aimed at improving market efficiency and infusing global competitiveness to Indian pulses and grains. This MoU is the logical culmination of the synergy between the Association whose members are an integral part of the physical market and the Exchange, a premier provider of price risk management services”

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World Crude Steel production falls 0.4% in Jan

 

China’s crude steel production for January 2014 was 61.6 Mt, down by -3.2% compared to January 2013. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan produced 9.4 Mt of crude steel in January 2014, an increase of 6.1% over January 2013..

BRUSSELS (Commodity Online): 

World crude steel production for the 65 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (worldsteel) was 130 million tonnes (Mt) in January 2014, a decrease of -0.4% compared to January 2013.

China’s crude steel production for January 2014 was 61.6 Mt, down by -3.2% compared to January 2013. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan produced 9.4 Mt of crude steel in January 2014, an increase of 6.1% over January 2013. South Korea’s crude steel production was 6.0 Mt in January 2014, up by 1.9% on January 2013.

In the EU, Germany produced 3.7 Mt of crude steel in January 2014, an increase of 2.2% compared to January 2013. Italy produced 2.2 Mt of crude steel, up by 27.8% compared to January 2013. Spain’s crude steel production was 1.1 Mt, an increase of 11.1% on January 2013. The UK produced 1.1 Mt of crude steel, up by 31.5% compared to January 2013.

Turkey’s crude steel production for January 2014 was 2.8 Mt, down by -0.9% on January 2013.

In January 2014, Russia produced 5.9 Mt of crude steel, an increase of 4.1% compared to the same month 2013. Ukraine’s production was 2.5 Mt in January 2014, down by -13.5% on January 2013.

The US produced 7.3 Mt of crude steel in January 2014, down by -0.5% on January 2013.

Brazil’s crude steel production for January 2014 was 2.7 Mt, a decrease of -1.4% compared to January 2013.

The crude steel capacity utilisation ratio for the 65 countries in January 2014 was 74.4% and it is 2.5 percentage points lower compared to January 2013. It is 0.2 percentage points higher than December 2013.

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Soybean: India-global market divergence seen, weather a key factor now

 

Support levels for Soybean March contract at National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) is seen at Rs 3700,3850 while resistance is seen at Rs 4120, 4250.

 

MUMBAI (Commodity Online): 

Soybean price trends in India and global markets have been divergent since the beginning of the season in October 2013 with gains witnessed in Indian markets, while global markets have been under pressure.

Angel Commodities in a monthly update on soybean said that Indian market will now follow global trends while weather in Argentina and Brazil will have a major impact on prices.

Support levels for Soybean March contract at National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) is seen at Rs 3700,3850 while resistance is seen at Rs 4120, 4250.

Global production of soybeans is estimated at 287 mn tons for 2013-14 season, a gain of 7.2% over 2012-13.

US harvest is already over and estimated at 89.5 mn tons. Brazil and Argentina's harvest may be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

From the consumption side, China continues to be a major factor having imported 59.9 mn tons in 2012-13 (October to September) while 2013-14 figures may have only increased. Robust increase in world production may offset the China demand thus keeping prices under check. Upside support is being provided by concerns on Souther American crop.

Supplies in the domestic markets have dwindled significantly while exports have remained subdued. However, recovery in the international markets and rising concerns over South American soy crop may encourage soy meal exports from the India in the months to come. Upward trend shall continue during the rest of February and early march.

Thereafter, prices will take cues from prevailing weather conditions in Argentina and Brazil. If weather turns conducive in the coming weeks, harvest shall commence in full pace in these nations and will then exert downside pressure on the prices. On contrary, if erratic weather conditions persist, then prices will continue to trade higher and a spillover effect of the same could be seen on the domestic soybean prices.

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COMMODITY MARKET TRED 21 FEB. 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Copper futures fell to a one-week low after manufacturing shrank more than estimated in China and some Federal Reserve officials advocated further curbing of U.S. economic stimulus.
CS TURMERIC (APRIL) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:7100
SUP2:6890
RESIST1:7470
RESIST2:7530
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CAPITALSTARS.COM +919200099927

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate crude headed for a sixth weekly gain as cold weather in the U.S. bolstered demand for heating fuels in the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent in London is poised to advance for the week.
CS JEERA (MARCH) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:11450
SUP2:11275
RESIST1:11900
RESIST2:12170
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CAPITALSTARS.COM +919200099927

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold futures fell for the second straight day as concern that the Federal Reserve will press on with cuts in U.S. monetary stimulus damped demand for the metal as an alternative asset.
CS SOYABEAN (MARCH) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:3965
SUP2:3908
RESIST1:4045
RESIST2:4140
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CAPITALSTARS.COM +919200099927

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Retail Sales m/m, Core CPI m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Existing Home Sales.
CS CHANA (APRIL) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:2950
SUP2:2875   
RESIST1:3090
RESIST2:3124
TRADING STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CAPITALSTARS.COM  +919977499927

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Rising Crude Oil prices a worry for Indian economy, CAD may rise

India's import prices for crude oil has climbed from $104 a barrel in the last fortnight of January to $107.84 as on February 19, according to Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas.

NEW DELHI (Commodity Online): 

The recent rally in crude oil prices have once again raised concerns on the pressure it could put on current account deficit and mounting fuel subsidies.

India's import prices for crude oil has climbed from $104 a barrel in the last fortnight of January to $107.84 as on February 19, according to Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. In rupee terms prices have risen to Rs 6699.02 per bbl on February 19 as compared to Rs 6661.75 per bbl on Feb 18th. This was due to price rise in dollar terms. Rupee dollar exchange at remained unchanged at weaker at Rs 62.12 per US$ on 19.02.2014 as on the precious’s trading on 18.02.2014.

India's Finance Minister in his interim budget for 2014-15 had announced Rs 65,000 cr as fuel subsidy. Despite the recent increase in prices of diesel by oil marketing companies, under recoveries on account of sale of diesel continues to be high at Rs 7.40 per litre.

Indian Oil, India's largest oil marketing company, had reported a net loss of Rs. 961 crore on Income from Operations of Rs. 1,17,672 crore for the quarter ended 31.12.2013. During the corresponding period in the previous year, the Corporation reported a net profit of Rs. 3,332 crore on Income from Operations of Rs. 1,16,700 crore. The decrease in profit is mainly on account of net under realization of Rs. 7,193 crore in current quarter as compared to over recovery of Rs. 408 crore received during Oct-Dec’12 for earlier quarters.

For the year 2013-14, Indian Oil is expected to incur under-recovery of around Rs. 73,700 crore on sale of three sensitive products (Industry around Rs. 1,42,000 crore)

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Gold mining output has little impact on prices: Jeff Nichols

 

This year's gold production is expected to hit a record 3000 tons excluding under-reporting by China and possibly a few other countries.The continuing growth in mine production is in contrast to expectations of many a..

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): 

 Gold mining production has little impact on the prices in the short run and less than generally believed over the long run, according to Jeff Nichols, Precious Metals economist and Managing Director of American Precious Metals.

"The price of one ounce of gold, at any moment in time, is exactly what the marginal investor and consumer of gold is willing to pay for it, ....it is no different from the market valuation of other non-income producing assets-- a work of fine art by Vincent Van Gogh or an irreplaceable antique,"  Jeff Nichols said.

This year's gold production is expected to hit a record 3000 tons excluding under-reporting by China and possibly a few other countries.The continuing growth in mine production is in contrast to expectations of many analysts and investors who expect lower prices to impact production.

Jeff Nichols said that despite lower gold prices over the past couple of years, it would take many more years of low prices and disappointing profitability (even losses) at some mines before gold mine supply can decline.

Increased capital spending by the mining industry – in particular, a number of large-scale mining projects undertaken during the decade-long stretch of rising prices – has begun contributing to primary supply and will be an important source of supply for years to come, Jeff Nichols added.

 

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commodity market update 20 Feb. 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Copper dropped by the most in a week, leading industrial metals lower, after a manufacturing gauge for China declined more than estimated, damping demand prospects in the world’s biggest user of metals.
CS CRUDE (FEB.) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:6338
SUP2:6280
RESIST1:6477
RESIST2:6582
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CAPITALSTARS.COM  +919200099927

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate retreated from the highest price since October after a Chinese manufacturing index slid to a seven-month low, signaling demand may slow from the world’s second-biggest oil consumer. Natural gas futures dropped from a five-year high in New York amid speculation that the biggest gain in 20 months was excessive.
CS GOLD (APRIL) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:29520
SUP2:29320
RESIST1:30300
RESIST2:30520
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CAPITALSTARS.COM +919200099927

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold held losses after a two-day drop on expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to taper stimulus in the U.S. and as holdings in the largest exchange-traded fund shrank by the most in two months.          
CS SILVER (MARCH) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:46700
SUP2:45740   
RESIST1:48100
RESIST2:49240
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CAPITALSTARS.COM +919200099927

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: FOMC Meeting Minutes, PPI Input q/q, HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI, Core CPI m/m, Unemployment Claims, CPI m/m, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Mortgage Delinquencies, CB Leading Index m/m, Natural Gas Storage, Crude Oil Inventories.
CS COPPER (FEB.) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:446
SUP2:443
RESIST1:452
RESIST2:454
TRADING STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CAPITALSTARS.COM  +919200099927

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How retail demand sliced 400oz London Good Delivery bars in 2013

 

“No review of 2013 would be complete without a mention of the unprecedented flow of gold from western vaults to eastern markets, via refiners in North America, Switzerland, and Dubai,”

Commodity Online

The World Gold Council, a collective of gold miners across the globe and an authentic source on gold related information outlines how the fervent demand from the markets in the East resulted in an epic transfer of yellow metal from the West. By East, one should primarily assume India and China or perhaps, Chindia!

“No review of 2013 would be complete without a mention of the unprecedented flow of gold from western vaults to eastern markets, via refiners in North America, Switzerland, and Dubai,” the council stressed in its report ‘Gold Demand Trends’ for the full year of 2013.

As the price of yellow metal dipped in April and June last year, consumers put on an impressive show of buying. In a feverish pitch, they alone, across the world, generated 21% increase in gold demand; demand for jewellery, small bars and coins took the consumption figures to well around 3,863.5 tons for last year. The impact of lower prices was widespread across the globe in H2, 2013, especially in the jewellery sector. When the macro sentiment pertaining to the economy in US got improved, this resulted in a steady flow of gold from the ETF vaults as well, a phenomenon marked by tactical selling.

“These shifts resulted in the shipment and transformation – on an epic scale – of 400oz London Good Delivery (LGD) bars into smaller denominations more suitable for consumers’ pockets,” the WGC report said as low prices fuelled a fiery retail demand fire of historic scales.

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Japan’s nuclear weapons future is here

 Despite enduring nuclear taboo in place, Japan is now on the road to manufacture public consent for nuclear weapons.

By Rakesh Neelakandan
A nuclear weapon is a status symbol until it is used

When the sovereignty and territorial sanctity of a nation faces threats, the basic instinct would be to get nationally nervous. Fight-or-flight choice is triggered. However, a nation is not like an individual and when the former gets nervous, it means it has got a single option on the table. To fight! And to fight, you need weapons—nuclear and conventional-- and a collective of systems in place. These facilities presuppose that public opinion is quite in favour of acquiring Weapons of Mass Destruction.

In any other country, nuclear weapons in the arsenal are deemed to be a status symbol; not Japan. Having been the victim of collateral destruction and damage, the Japanese psyche’s revulsion to nuclear weapons is the stuff of legends. However, despite enduring nuclear taboo in place Japan is now on the road to manufacture public consent for nuclear weapons. Attempts to revive nationalism in a deflated political economy should be seen in this light.

That Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is provocative is no secret. 

His controversial visit to Yasukuni Shrine in December last year kicked a hornet’s nest in Asia. He is also trying hard to keep up with an assertive and often aggressive China. Recall for example the case of East China Sea ADIZ proclamation by China and Japan’s reaction to it.

No wonder that the news of Japan secretly developing nuclear weapons cannot be treated as belonging completely to the realm of fiction as much as it cannot be considered as belonging to the section of facts. Truth is evasive.

Japan has a horrible past. One of the most aggressive countries of last century, Japan was pressed under the US nuclear boots which also led to the permanent footprint getting itself imprinted on Japanese ‘peace constitution’.

In fact, Japanese atomic policy rests on four pillars.

---Atomic Energy Basic Law of 1955 that limits Japan’s using of nuclear energy to the strict confines of peaceful purposes.

---The Three Non-Nuclear Principles wherein Japanese Diet or Parliament has pledged not to make, possess or even allow nuke weapons in its territory.

---Non Proliferation Treaty regime compliance and promotion by Japan.

---Japan’s reliance on US nuclear umbrella and security pact 

If reports are anything to go by, three of these pillars are under threat endangering the fourth one as well.

The first pillar faced the threat of dismantling when the Japanese Diet amended the 57 year old Atomic Energy Act wherein national security was included in the aims of the law, making it oxymoronic in character, despite assurances of contrary nature from highest echelons of Japanese political circles. 

The existence of second pillar had always been in doubt. After all, it is just a principle adopted by the Diet and has not been signed into law. The space to manoeuvre thus laid was a Japanese strategic decision to protect its scope and power to build nuclear weapons.

That Japan is capable of building nuclear weapons is no secret since 1994.The then Japanese PM Mr.Hata had made it abundantly clear: 'It is certainly the case that Japan has the capability to possess nuclear weapons, but has not made them.’

During those times, China was not in the nuclear calculus of Japan. Now, it has changed and perhaps changed forever.

There also exists the possibility that Japanese government may allow the US to bring in nuclear weapons on to its territory as recently iterated by Japan’s foreign minister Fumio Kishida, provided the national security of Japan is threatened.

While this gives out the impression that Japan would indeed allow US to bring in nuclear weapons, I believe that this was just a feeler sent by the political class in Japan to gauge public opinion. It should not be read as Japan warming up in the tight embrace of the US; far from it.

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Fresh buying seen in Natural Gas, open interest up 6.45%

Naturalgas is getting support at 335.8 and below same could see a test of 331 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 345.4, a move above could see prices testing 350.2.

MUMBAI:  

 

Naturalgas settled up 1.01% at 340.60 shot up on Tuesday as a winter storm trekked across the northeastern U.S., sparking a rally due to sentiments homes and business will crank up their heating. Updated weather forecasting models indicated that a strong winter storm was set to sweep over the northeastern U.S. on Tuesday and bring strong winds and fresh snowfall. Frigid weather reports sent gas prices rising on sentiments demand for the commodity will climb at thermal power plants to heat the region's homes and businesses.

Nymex natural gas prices surged 8.41% last week, the first weekly gain in three weeks, as chilly winter temperatures in the U.S. led households to burn a higher than normal amount of the fuel to heat their homes. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Approximately 52% of U.S. households use natural gas for heating, according to the Energy Department. Speculation that this week’s supply data will show a larger-than-average drawdown in supplies also lent support. Early withdrawal estimates range from 212 billion cubic feet to 240 billion cubic feet. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 1.686 trillion cubic feet as of last week, the lowest for this time of year since 2004.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.45% to settled at 15983 while prices up 3.4 rupee, now Naturalgas is getting support at 335.8 and below same could see a test of 331 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 345.4, a move above could see prices testing 350.2.

Trading Ideas:

--Naturalgas trading range for the day is 331-350.2.

--Natural gas rose as a winter storm trekked across the northeastern U.S., sparking a rally due to sentiments homes and business will crank up their heating.

--Updated weather forecasting models indicated that a strong winter storm was set to sweep over the northeastern U.S. and bring strong winds and fresh snowfall.

--Speculation that this week’s supply data will show a larger-than-average drawdown in supplies also lent support.

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India Rubber prospects to improve on lower production, automotive industry demand

 

In view of the excise reduction in automobiles, major manufactuers have already announced reduction in prices ranging from Rs 5000 to Rs 50,000 which could boost sales.

KOTTAYAM/MUMBAI, INDIA (Commodity Online): 

Rubber prices climbed up in Indian spot and futures market as Kerala Government renewed its committment to provide support for rubber by continuing to procure the commodity at Rs 2 per kg above market prices and lower production data released by Rubber Board. Meanwhile, the lowering of excise duty for a variety of passenger cars could raise demand for automobiles from April to June period, increasing the demand for tyres, analysts said.

Spot rubber prices tracked by Rubber Board has risen from Rs 14200 per 100 kg for RSS$ grade in the beginning of February to Rs 15500 per 100 kg on February 18th.

NMCE rubber futures fell more than three per cent on Tuesday, almost erasing the previous gains, possibly on profit booking. Moreover, investors/traders are probably awaiting further details on the rubber procurement scheme proposed by the State Government. In the meantime, natural rubber in the overseas market is seen moving in thin ranges with mild positive bias after the recent bounce back. TOCOM rubber futures edged up on Wednesday and so were AFET and SHFE rubber futures. Gains in crude oil prices aided the sentiments, Geojit Comtrade said in a daily report. 

NMCE March contract have support at 15200, 15100, 15000, 14850, 14750, 14600. Ressistance 15500, 15650, 15820,16060, 16180, 16250 a, according to Geojit Comtrade.

According to Rubber Board,Production and consumption in India declined during April 2013 to January 2014 compared to a year ago. Production was 9.4 per cent lower on a year ago. Production in this period was provisionally estimated at 723,000 tonnes. The main reasons for the decline were excessive rains, leaf diseases and low prices. However, the area increased from 504,000 hectares in 2012-13 to 518,000 hectares in 2013-14."

In view of the excise reduction in automobiles, major manufactuers have already announced reduction in prices ranging from Rs 5000 to Rs 50,000 which could boost sales.

Global trends

International Rubber Study Group expects production of rubber to rise 3.4% to 12.1 mn tons and consumption to be 11.9 mn tons in 2014. In 2013, the corresponding figures were 11.7 mn tons and 11.3 mn tons.

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COMMODITY MARKET TREND-19 FEB. 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Copper futures rose to a three-week high, amid speculation demand from top consumer China will increase after data pointed to an improvement in Chinese credit growth.
CS SILVER (MARCH) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:47280
SUP2:46700   
RESIST1:49240
RESIST2:50400
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CAPITALSTARS.COM +919200099927
ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate crude surged above $102, the highest level in four months, on speculation that inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, decreased last week and as cold weather in the U.S. boosted fuel demand. Natural gas futures jumped to a three-week high in New York as storms and cold weather boosted heating demand, cutting stockpiles to the lowest in 10 years.
CS GOLD (APRIL) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:30000
SUP2:29520
RESIST1:30520
RESIST2:30680
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CAPITALSTARS.COM +919200099927
PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold extended a decline from the highest level in more than three months amid expectations that Federal Reserve minutes will show policy makers backing further stimulus cuts. Silver snapped the longest rally in four decades.
CS CRUDE (FEB.) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:6280
SUP2:6160
RESIST1:6477
RESIST2:6582
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CAPITALSTARS.COM +919200099927
GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Claimant Count Change, MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Unemployment Rate, German 10-y Bond Auction, Wholesale Sales m/m, Building Permits, PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, Housing Starts.
CS COPPER (FEB.) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:448
SUP2:446
RESIST1:452
RESIST2:454
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CAPITALSTARS.COM +919200099927

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Natural Gas pricing: Is Kejriwal barking up the wrong tree?

Then the question comes, why explore gas domestically, if it entails a cost higher than global exploration costs. Here the Ministry's logic is the huge outgo on foreign exchange (oil and natural gas is our number one .

 

By Sreekumar Raghavan

 
As some one who has been following the developments in natural gas sector from an 'arms length' and the number of columns written by people who are not really experts but mostly laymen using some logic to come to a conclusion, I wouldn't be surprised if you get the facts right on this issue. Most of us either end up on the side of Kejriwal or hardcore UPA supporters the oppoiste.

In fact Dr C Rangarajan, a distinguished economist and former Governor of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) who didn't have anything to do with natural gas or crude oil headed a committee under the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (EAC) to study the problems related to pricing of natural gas in India.

The Oil and Natural Gas Ministry seems to have partially adopted the recommendations of the committee and also based on Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) reports, has come out with a new pricing formula effective from April 1, 2014. But nowhere does it mention that prices would rise to $8 per MMBTU (million British Thermal Units). Instead it is based on a formula that averages the prices that producers in other regions of the world and exporting centres get on a quarterly basis and that value is used to arrive at the domestic gas price in India.

A notification of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas dated January 1, 2014 states that prices applicable for domestic gas producers will be calculated on the basis of following methodology:

- The netback price of all Indian imports at the wellhead of the exporting countries will be estimated. It will be a weighted average pf such netback of import prices at the wellheads represent the average global price for Indian LNG imports.

Secondly, weighted average of prices prevailing at trading points of transactions – i.e., the hubs or balancing points of the major global markets will be estimated. For this, (a) the hub price (at the Henry Hub) in the US (for North America), (b) the price at the National Balancing Point of the UK (for Europe), and (c) the netback wellhead price at the sources of supply for Japan will be taken as the average price for producers at their supply points across continents.

-Finally, the simple average of the prices arrived at through the aforementioned two methods will be determined as the price for domestically produced natural gas in India.

This is the formula: PAV = (PIAV = PWAV)/2.

As per this notification, there is no reason to assume that prices will double to $8 per MMBTU as the variables are international prices and they have usually moved in a narrow band with markets presently bullish on colder weather in USA and Europe.

The Rangarajan Committee and the Petroleum and Natural Gas Ministry have put forward some objectives behind this pricing formula.

1) India doesn't have a domestic price for natural gas as it is mostly imported. This applies to crude oil too.

2)If India needs to enable energy security there needs to incentivisation to domestically explore the sources of natural gas. Hence this pricing formula which Kejriwal and co says would push prices to $8 per MMBTU

3) There is a reasonable basis to assume that India's production cost would be higher compared to other nations which have reached an advance level of exploration and mining of natural resources.

Then the question comes, why explore gas domestically, if it entails a cost higher than global exploration costs. Here the Ministry's logic is the huge outgo on foreign exchange (oil and natural gas is our number one guzzler of foreign exchange and therefore a major contributor increasing Current Account Deficit, apart from gold).

There are several issues related to Production Sharing Contracts and royalty payments, cost recoveries under NELP contracts which is beyond the scope of this column. The saddest part is that energy experts haven't really commented on the issue so far.

 

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